World Cup hopefuls in CONCACAF : Canada vs. USA Preview

What’s in a game? For these two World Cup hopefuls in CONCACAF, it’s a stranglehold on the octagonal qualifying group. The amount of storylines for this match are endless and we could ramble on for hours, but it may be better to highlight a few of the key matchups for Sunday’s match. These matchups are all based on what we believe the lineups will be come Sunday.

The logical place to start would be between the sticks. Canada will roll out their goalkeeping stalwart in Milan Borjan. He made some huge saves in the second half against Honduras and will definitely be called upon against the US. There’s no question that Milan is an exceptional shot stopper and organizer of his defence, but his durability may come into question if the US attack proves to be overwhelming. Borjan will be looking to his defenders to step up and limit the shot attempts. The familiarity that Borjan has with his defenders will be key to stifling the US forwards.

The US will likely be starting with Matt Turner. The newly-signed Arsenal goalkeeper (currently back with New England on loan) will attempt to prove that he is the better option than the injured Zack Steffen. Already possessing great shot-stopping ability, Turner will have to be prepared to command his box and cut off any crosses that will be driven in from both Canadian wings.

In this matchup, shot-stopping and distribution are relatively close, but I give Canada the advantage based solely on Borjan’s experience and familiarity with his defenders.

Advantage: Canada

They say defence wins championships, and it’s hard to split hairs between the two nations. They both have allowed 5 goals in the octagon so far, and for the most part the defenders on each team have been consistent. The US may have the best defender in North America in Walker Zimmerman, but his ex-teammate Alistair Johnston (who now plies his trade with CF Montreal) could be the X-Factor in this match. He gets forward at will, and somehow always seems to be closing down forwards on the defensive end. His motor is something that all managers look for in a fullback, and a move to Europe in his near future would not be a surprise.

Advantage: Draw

The question that looms largely above this match is:

“Will we see Hutchinson start?” The all-time senior cap leader for Canada is an engine. The way he sees the game and the experience he brings to matches might be invaluable come Sunday. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to see him come in for the last 30, but we’ll leave those decisions to Jon Herdman. Aside from Atiba, the Canadian midfield has been solid. Whoever has had to fill a shift in the midfield knows that the real strength of this Canadian squad is in the attack, so distribution and a holding mindset has been important. Which is why we’ll most likely see a pair of Kaye and Eustaquio in midfield. Kaye will be able to clean up, and Eustaquio distribute. This all hinges, of course, on Eustaquio being available.

The US will more than likely run out 3 holding midfielders with McKennie, Lletget, and Adams. This will cause a bit of an overload for Canada, but possession will be huge for the US away from home. McKennie is a unit, he’ll be looking to win the ball and will probably help to double the Canadian forwards. Adams will play more of a fulcrum, with Lletget getting a bit more forward. He does have a goal in him, so this will probably one to watch. If the US were looking for a more attacking squad, look for them to dispatch Roldan right behind the forward with Adams and McKennie sitting in the gaps.

It’s difficult to say who has the advantage in the middle of the park, especially without word yet on Stephen Eustaquio. An optimist would says that the new FC Porto signing will play, but it remains to be seen.

Advantage: USA

The next matchup to look at is out on the wings. Canada will more than likely be utilizing wingbacks and a front 3, so we’ll keep this to the just the wingbacks. Sam Adekugbe (who we can definitely see moving to a bigger club soon) and Richie Laryea (who just transferred to one of the most storied clubs in England) will cause fits for the US fullbacks. Laryea is one of the best players we’ve ever seen when it comes to winning penalties, and Adekugbe is tireless with an amazing eye for link-up play. Their pace and the danger that they both bring to the Canadian side will definitely be something watch. We can all see Richie drawing a penalty on Sunday. It’s been a few games since he’s done it, but it was almost common place in the Gold Cup and pre-qualifying.

It could be that the US, if running with 3 holding midfielders, would use two wingers. We can assume one will be Brenden Aaronson. The Red Bull Salzburg (and possibly soon to be Leeds United) youngster is electric, loves to attack the defence, and has a goal in him. The matchup of Aaronson vs Miller will be the one to watch on Sunday. While Jordan Morris or Kellyn Acosta do warrant consideration, Aaronson is the future for the US so getting him out there in these big matches is important. On the other wing, it’s easy to choose; Christian Pulisic will patrol the touchline and attempt to cause fits for whatever fullback has the difficult task of corralling one of the best American exports in recent memory. A down year with Chelsea, and maybe a lack of match sharpness may actually benefit the Canadians here.

We’d love to say that Canada has the better wingers in this match, but through name value alone… we have to give the advantage to the USA.

Advantage: USA

Lastly, let’s cover the forward/attack for each squad. Canada has a embarrassment of riches when it comes to attacking players. Even with Alphonzo Davies missing this match, the likes of Jonathan David, Cyle Larin, Iké Ugbo, and Tajon Buchanan will strike fear into opposing defenders. Canada will more than likely be lining up with 3 attackers. This is a match that they can afford to go after with Panama dropping points midweek. The world-class attackers with the Maple Leaf on their chest are a sight to be seen and the US has does not have the defensive fortitude to counter them. Don’t be surprised if the trio of David, Larin, and Buchanan rack up a double-digit shot total on Sunday.

The US are interesting. Depending on how the rest of their squad is set up, they could be rolling with 1 striker or 3 attackers. If it’s 1 striker, they’re going with Zardes. Gyasi has a decent goal scoring record for both club and country, and brings a physical/holdup aspect to the front line. The other option could be Ricardo Pepi. The young US star has the word at his feet since his move to the Bundesliga and could hear his name being called for the start in this match. It’s tough to say who starts up front if it’s a lone striker, but regardless, Canada has the advantage.

Advantage: Canada

We’ve contemplated who has advantages and where we might see the most action in this match, but what about the score? A high-scoring, exciting match is what we all want… …but realistically we should expect to see a low-scoring affair in an extremely cold Hamilton. We’re going to cautiously call this as a 1-1 draw between the two evenly matched squads, but we fully expect that Canada will try to come out and win. 

World Cup hopefuls in CONCACAF Projected Lineups:

Canada:

• GK – Borjan

• DF – Johnston
• DF – Vitoria
• DF – Miller

• MF – Laryea
• MF – Kaye
• MF – Eustaquio
• MF – Adekugbe

• FW – Buchanan
• FW – Larin
• FW – David

USA:

• GK – Turner

• DF – Dest
• DF – Zimmerman
• DF – Richards
• DF – Robinson

• MF – Pulisic
• MF – McKennie
• MF – Adams
• MF – Lletget
• MF – Aaronson

• FW – Zardes

Catch all the action at OneSoccer.ca.